How TCGIndex works
TCGIndex is a data platform for trading-card investors. We track the secondary-market price of cards across major TCGs, turn that into market metrics and opportunity signals, and log every pick so its performance is measurable. This page explains exactly how.
What does TCGIndex measure?
For every tracked card and printing/condition variant, TCGIndex ingests secondary-market prices and builds a price history. From that history we derive market-value indexes per game and per set, and per-card metrics: short- and medium-term price change (7, 30 and 90 days), momentum, volatility and a price-confidence rating that reflects how reliable the current price reading is.
How does TCGIndex identify investment opportunities?
Opportunities are cards whose pricing or activity looks unusual relative to comparable cards and to their own recent history, for example momentum, breakout patterns or relative under-pricing. Each opportunity carries an opportunity score and a confidence score (a probability between 0 and 1). Higher-confidence signals are held to a stricter bar; our highest-conviction tier is reserved for confidence at or above 0.75.
Opportunities are not a statement about how strong a card is in competitive play. They are a read on price and market behaviour.
How is a pick tracked and resolved?
When TCGIndex flags a pick, it is logged with an entry price and the date it was flagged. A pick is considered freshly entry-able while it is at most 7 days old and has not yet moved more than about +10% from entry; after that it is still tracked but marked as maturing. Each pick has a target horizon and is followed until it resolves, at which point we record the exit price and the realised return.
How is the track record measured?
We measure performance only on resolved picks, the ones that have already played out, using the logged entry price and the resolution price. Hit rate is the share of resolved picks with a positive return. Average return is the mean return across resolved picks. ROI is total profit over total amount notionally invested.
As of the latest update, the Pokémon model shows a 60% hit rate and +14% ROI across 242 resolved picks since inception. The full, continuously-updated record is on the track record page.
How fresh is the data?
Prices, indexes and signals are refreshed regularly from the underlying market feeds. Each card, set and market page shows the latest available reading rather than a static snapshot.
Limitations and disclaimer
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. TCGIndex provides market data and informational analysis, not financial or investment advice. Trading cards are collectibles whose prices can fall as well as rise, and can be illiquid. Returns shown are measured from a logged entry price to a resolution price and do not account for transaction fees, grading or shipping. Always do your own research before buying or selling.